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"Agrowill group" iš arčiau

interviu | 2008-11-30 | Spekuliantai.lt apžvalgos | perskaitė: 6162
"Agrowill group" iš arčiau Po ne itin džiugių „Agrowill group“ ketvirčio rezultatų paskelbimo, spekuliantai.lt pakalbino Domantą Savičių, bendrovės finansų direktorių, kuris
Po ne itin džiugių „Agrowill group“ ketvirčio rezultatų paskelbimo, spekuliantai.lt pakalbino Domantą Savičių, bendrovės finansų direktorių, kuris sutiko pakalbėti apie pokyčius produktų kainose ir ateities viltis.

1. Praėjusią savaitę paskelbėte trečio ketvirčio rezultatus. Pagal juos, bendrovės pardavimai kilo nuo 29,2 iki 39,1 mln. litų, o EBITDA krito nuo 12,6 iki 12 mln. litų. Kokie pagrindiniai faktoriai lemia EBITDA mažėjimą?

EBITDA mažėjimą lemia grūdinių kultūrų kainų pokyčiai. AB „Agrowill Group“ 2008m. derlius yra įvertintas rinkos vertėmis kurios tiesiogiai atsispindi EBITDA. Galite įvertinti EBITDA pokytį ir kviečių (kaip pagrindinės auginamos kultūros) kainų dinamiką: http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=EBM%20X9-ENC&o=&a=D&z=610x300&d=medium&b=LINE&st=

2. 2008m. 3 ketvirčių pardavimų pajamos jau rodomos su naujais įsigijimais. Ar kilo pardavimai, jei neskaitytumėme naujų įsigijimų?

Taip, kilo. Į 3-ų ketvirčių skaičius yra įtraukti tik „Polva Agro“ rezultatai už trečią ketvirtį. Kadangi „Grūduva“ įsigyta tik rugsėjo pabaigoje, tai jos rezultatai kol kas neįtraukiami į pelno nuostolio ataskaita, tik prikonsoliduojamas turtas.

3. Kokias jaučiate artimiausio laiko tendencijas (produkcijos kainų mažėjimo ar didėjimo)?

Trumpuoju laikotarpiu dar vyks korekcija (tiek pieno, tiek grūdų kainų), kurias įtakoja bendri pokyčiai pasaulinėse žaliavų rinkose, vartojimo tendencijos ir Kinijos melamino skandalas (čia išskirtinai įtaka pieno vartojimui), tačiau jau kitų metų vasarą tikimasi kainų didėjimo, nes dėl sudėtingesnes situacijos nemažai ūkininkų ir bendrovių tiek Lietuvoje tiek kitose šalyse drastiškai mažina paselių plotus ir dėl to yra laukiamas maisto produktų pasiūlos mažėjimas, kai tuo tarpu pasaulio gyventojų skaičius tolygiai auga.

4. Visiškai nesenai pradėjote platinti neviešą obligacijų emisiją, kurių palūkanos sieks 14 proc. Šios palūkanos, lyginant su pernai metais, pabrango 6 proc. Ar didelę įtaką bendrovės rezultatams turės palūkanų brangimas? T.y. ar neatsisakote ir toliau leisti obligacijų emisijas?

Pelno nuostolio ataskaitoje palūkanos turi nemažą svorį. Obligacijų emisija yra platinama su tikslu dalinai refinansuoti ankstesnes emisijas, kurios buvo skirtos įsigijimams finansuoti. Didžiąją dalį išperkamų obligacijų emisijų dengsime iš veiklos srautų – grūdų pardavimo. Žr. mūsų pranešimą per biržos sistemą dėl obligacijų emisijos išpirkimo.

5. Ar jūsų plėtros nestabdo prasta situacija finansų rinkose? Sunku gauti kreditavimą, tačiau tuo pačiu pinga panašūs ar konkuruojantys verslai. Tad visumoje, Agrowill tai į naudą, ar ne?

Toliau domimės visomis galimomis investicijomis, tiesiog jų kaina yra vertinama skrupulingiau. Mūsų vertinimu tokia situacija yra mums naudinga, nes ilguoju laikotarpiu išlikti gali tik didesni ūkiai su platesnėmis finansinėmis galimybėmis. Einamuoju laikotarpiu Grupė daugiau energijos skiria vidiniam efektyvumui ir planuoja į pirkimų rinką grįžti 2009 m. pavasarį, kai, tikėtina, rinkoje bus nemažai patrauklių pirkinių. Dabar pagrindinis dėmesys yra skiriamas turimos gamybos bazės panaudojimo optimizavimui. Turime labai daug neišnaudoto vidinio potencialo kurio panaudojimas mums gali atnešti papildomai 10-15 mln. litu per metus (tikimės šį rezervą dalinai „naudoti“ jau 2009 m., o pilnai pasiekti norimą efektyvumo lygį per 2-3 metus). Tuo tikslu baigiame sutarti dėl strateginio bendradarbiavimo sutarties su kompanija - viena iš pasaulinių lyderių pieno sektoriaus technologijų ir „know-how“ srityje, plačiau apie tai pranešime kaip bus pasirašytas konkretus susitarimas. Taipogi esame sutarę dėl dviejų ekspertų iš vakarų Europos, kurie turėtų pradėti dirbti su mūsų bendrovėmis pieno ir augalininkystes srityse siekiant pasiekti norimą efektyvumą.

6. Ar ypač suprastėjusi Rusijos padėtis atsiliepia ir šiame regione dirbančioms žemės ūkio bendrovėms, kurias ketinate artimiausiu metu įsigyti (t.y. ar jų savininkai taip pat linksta mažinti bendrovių pardavimo kainas)?

Taip. Rinkos tendencijos neaplenkia nė vienos šalies, nes žemės ūkio sektoriuje gaminamas produktas yra laisvai per pasaulines biržas prekiaujama žaliava. Kaip minėjau aukščiau – prastėjanti konkurentų situacija atveria puikias galimybes plėtrai toms bendrovėms, kurios yra šiuo metu sukaupusios kapitalo arba turi konkrečių planų kaip jį pritraukti.

7. Vienoje investuotojams skirtoje prezentacijoje Gediminas Žiemelis yra minėjęs, o vėliau ir per biržos informacinę sistemą pranešta, kad ketinama mažinant užsiskolinimo lygį, dalį ar visus įsigytus sklypus parduoti pensijų ar kitiems fondams ir iš jų juos veiklai nuomotis pagal ilgalaikes sutartis. Ar šis procesas vyksta?

Taip šis procesas vyksta. Prisitaikant prie pakitusių rinkos sąlygų esame pradėję derybas ne tik su instituciniais investuotojais, o taipogi su keliais potencialiais žemės pirkėjais kurie patys būtų jos naudotojai, du iš jų yra iš Vakarų Europos, kas, mūsų nuomone, parodo užsieniečių susidomėjimą ir tikėjimą Lietuvos žemės ūkio sektoriaus ateitimi. Tikėtina, kad pirmieji sandoriai bus sudaryti dar šiais metais.

8. Tas pats Gediminas Žiemelis per prezentacijas yra sakęs, kad ŽIA Valda ketina didinti savo dalį Agrowill grupėje. Gal žinote, kodėl jie šios dalies nedidina, kuomet akcijų kaina pigo bene 2x lyginant su IPO kaina?

„ŽIA VALDA“ dalis AB „Agrowill Group“ nuo rugpjūčio mėnesio 26,14% padidėjo iki beveik 32 proc. šiuo metu. Kiek mums žinoma ši bendrovė siekia valdyti nemažiau nei 40 proc. akcijų.

9. Ko palinkėtumėte smulkiesiems Agrowill akcininkams, kurie kenčia akcijų kritimą iš 5-7 litų lygio į ~2.5?

Kantrybes ir racionalumo. Patarčiau situaciją vertinti remiantis finansiniais rodikliais ir skaičiavimais, o nereaguoti i pasaulinės ekonomikos pokyčius grynai emociškai. Mūsų įmonė gamina pirmo būtinumo produktą, kuris perkamas net per pačias didžiausias krizes. Pažymėtina, kad pirkėjų elgsena per krizes su pirmumo būtinumo prekėmis netgi teigiamai įtakoja mūsų verslą, nes paprastai žmonės kaupia maisto atsargas.
Pastarųjų 6 mėnesių įvykiai, kurie pasaulį apvertė aukštyn kojom išryškino kelis momentus investicinėje aplinkoje. Visų pirma – kiek verti finansiniai sektoriai ir kokia jų pridėtinė vertė. Manome, kad iki tol susižavėję būsimomis vertėmis, išvestiniais verslais vėl visi atsigręš į fundamentalias industrijas. AB „Agrowill Group“ verslas ne tik fundamentalus, bet ir pirmo būtinumo. O finansų krizės metu gaminti gali tik dideli ir stambūs ūkiai, todėl mūsų veiklai, tai turės netgi teigiamos įtakos. Žmonės gali atsisakyti automobilių, brangesnio būsto ar geresnių drabužių, bet jie neatsisakys duonos ar pieno.
Žiūrint ilgalaikėje perspektyvoje - augant gyventojų skaičiui ir perkamajai galiai bei mažėjant pasaulinėms maisto atsargoms neišvengiamai kils mūsų gaminamo produkto kainos ir, atitinkamai, šio sektoriaus įmonių vertės. Šiuo klausimu siūlytumėm pažiūrėti CNBC puslapyje publikuojamą interview su Syngenta CEO.
Bendrai paėmus AB „Agrowill Group“ ši krizė tik į naudą; manome, kad tą rodo ir akcijų kaina, nes daugumos kitų įmonių ji nukrito daugiau.

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2017-03-22 | Spekuliantai.lt apžvalgos 2017-03-20 | Spekuliantai.lt apžvalgos 2017-03-08 | Spekuliantai.lt apžvalgos 2017-03-06 | Spekuliantai.lt apžvalgos

Komentarai



2008 11 30 17:45     #4292
aciu ,.... idomu buvo suzinoti
2008 11 30 17:51     #4293
Jooo...pakalbejo vaikinas savicius cia graziai...tik va uzskolinta si kontora tai ziauriai...Finansiniu skolu/isipareigojimu virs 150mln, imone generuoja minusa, produkcijos kainos krinta...hmm, na parduos tas zemes, kad ir uz 100mln, ir ka? Atiduos skolas bankams ir ka? Ka tada uzstatys uz paskolas, fin. dira su generaliniu, ar koki atliekama sena flylal lektuva?...Sikna jiems dega dabar, o ne pletra galvoje. O dar linki situacija vertinti fin. rodikliais ir skaiciavimais?! Ha ha ha, tokiu atveju akcijos kaina siandien ryskiai per auksta
2008 11 30 17:56     #4294
tai gal tu insaideri koki turi kad taip zinai viska? ;D
2008 11 30 18:00     #4295
P.S. nepaminejo ir to kad smulkus ukininkai imasi is ES paramas ir ju lieka vis maziau
2008 11 30 21:45     #4296
Nenukrito akciju kaina? ne todel, kad ji daugiau verta nei kitos, o todel, kad visiskas nelikvidas.
2008 12 01 12:01     #4298
"o taipogi su keliais potencialiais žemės pirkėjais kurie patys būtų jos naudotojai, du iš jų yra iš Vakarų Europos, kas, mūsų nuomone, parodo užsieniečių susidomėjimą ir tikėjimą Lietuvos žemės ūkio sektoriaus ateitimi" Taip iseina, jog Agrowill parduoda dali savo verslo. Klausimas yra kitas - pinigu truksta pletrai ar kitiems poreikiams tenkinti (pvz: pasklos aptarnavimas)
2008 12 01 12:04     #4299
"dalį ar visus įsigytus sklypus parduoti pensijų ar kitiems fondams" Finasta pensiju fondai?
2008 12 01 13:12     #4301
Vienas britų lordas yra kada tai labai tiksliai pasakes - yra trys budai bankrutuoti: 1.greiciausias - arkliu lenktynes 2.maloniausias-moterys 3.patikimiausias - zemes ukis
2008 12 01 14:50     #4302
To uno teisingai... Kaip tik apie graika , gyvenusi LT Lrytas siandien rase - tip top ant karviu bankrutavo...
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