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Ar euforija kapitalo rinkose reiškia tvarų augimą?

Nojus | 2016-11-28 | Rinkos aktualijos | perskaitė: 43295
Ar euforija kapitalo rinkose reiškia tvarų augimą? Sunku kilimą pavadinti kitaip nei euforija. Tiesa, apyvartos akcijų rinkose mažoka. Kitą kartą, žiūrėk, energijos pritrūks ir prasidės riedėjimas že

Euforija rinkose

Sunku kilimą pavadinti kitaip nei euforija. Tiesa, apyvartos akcijų rinkose mažoka. Kitą kartą, žiūrėk, energijos pritrūks ir prasidės riedėjimas žemyn.

O jo mes jau senokai laukiam. Va, manėm, ateis D.Trump‘as, prasidės tikroji korekcija. Kur tau. Niekas neprasidėjo ir niekas nesibaigė. Tik JAV obligacijos atpigo.

Protokolas

Praėjusią savaitę pamatėme FED FOMC protokolą. O jame – palūkanų kėlimą „jau greitai“, nes JAV darbo rinka gali perkaisti.

Iš tikrųjų, matome, kad nedarbo lygis stabilizavosi FED FOMC „targeto“ lygmenyje ir toks yra daugiau nei metus.


source: tradingeconomics.com

Bet ar tai gali reikšti perkaitimą?

Lažybos

CME Group FedWatch skaičiuojama palūkanų pakėlimo 2016 m. gruodžio 14 d. nukrito iki 93.5%.

Tikimybė, kad palūkanų norma bus pakelta vasario 1 d. nukrito iki 86.7%.

Tikimybė, kad palūkanų norma bus pakelta 2017 m. kovo 15 d. nukrito iki 72.7%.

Indeksai

Praėjusią net ir sutrumpintą savaitę JAV akcijų indeksai pasiekė naujas istorines aukštumas. Kainos ir AO divergencija neleidžia tikėtis ilgo akcijų kainų kilimo.
Dow Jones Industrial Average:


Tačiau Dow Jones Transportation Average indekso grafike divergencijos nėra. Todėl šio indekso kilimo tikimybė yra daug didesnė.
Dow Jones Transportation Average:


 

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